Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of economic variables, specifically the average crude oil prices as the dependent variable, on the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar during the period from 2000 to 2024. The analysis was conducted using statistical tools and methods. Annual data for the two studied variables were collected and subjected to normality tests (Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk). In addition, Pearson correlation and simple linear regression analyses were performed to determine the extent of the impact of oil prices on the exchange rate.The results showed that the exchange rate data of the Iraqi dinar follow a normal distribution. The correlation analysis revealed an inverse relationship between the two variables, with a correlation coefficient of -0.283 and a p-value of 0.170, which is higher than the commonly accepted significance level of 0.05.The study recommends the use of non-parametric statistical methods in future analyses of such variables, emphasizing the importance of developing predictive models, such as ARIMA, to analyze future trends in exchange rates and enhance the ability to make data-driven economic and financial decisions.
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